Kansas State University

  1. K-State Home
  2. »Agronomy Home
  3. »K-State Agronomy eUpdates
  4. »eUpdate 464 July 3rd, 2014»El Niño formation possible

K-State Agronomy eUpdates

Department of Agronomy

Kansas State University

1712 Claflin Rd.

2004 Throckmorton PSC

Manhatan, KS 66506

785-532-6101

agronomy@ksu.edu

Extension Agronomy

El Niño formation possible

El Niño has crept back into weather and climate conversation. El Niño generally refers to the development of an abnormally warm pool of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. An official El Niño requires the Ocean Niño Index (ONI) to be +0.5 degrees C for 5 consecutive 3-month periods. An illustration of that pattern is shown below:

Central Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Triad of months

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

 

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

 

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2014 ONI

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.2

 

 

 

 

*

 

 

 

 

               

*Earliest point for an El Niño to be declared would be September. October or November is more likely.

Depending on its strength, the impacts can be felt around the world. Southern California often has excessive winter rains when an El Niño is in place. The Pacific Northwest, however, frequently sees drought conditions develop. The further you get from the coast, however, the less direct and the less consistent the impacts. In Kansas, an El Niño generally means a milder-than-normal winter, with a greater likelihood of wetter conditions in the southern tier of counties.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/

 

Figure 1. El Nino precipitation anomalies.

 

Mary Knapp, Weather Data Library
mknapp@ksu.edu